Saturday Winners - Morphettville & Moonee Valley
Trying a new format to highlight South Australian racing, whilst offering bets over South Australia and Victoria. In South Australia, we are racing at Morphettville on Saturday, whilst in Victoria, it’s Moonee Valley, hosting the Group 1 Cox Plate. I am also having a look at a South Australian horse at Sale on Sunday.
Morphettville
Best Bet
Race 8 #4 Touchdown ($2.20) - Won impressively first-up over the 1400m at Sale before being given a sub-par steer over the mile at Ballarat second-up. Despite being wide throughout at Ballarat, he still ran home a L800m that was around three lengths above average, lumping 60kg. Third-up here, staying at the mile in a much easier race talent-wise, he SHOULD be winning this, and winning it well.
Next Best
Race 1 #1 Blandford Baron ($2.00) - Was all over him after his impressive trials/jumpouts, but he ran into a smart one in Inhabit, when beaten one length in the opening two-year-old race of the South Australian season. He managed to handle the rest of the field by 2.2 lengths+, and that was still racing greenly. Up to 1000m now, blinkers on and race experience… he should be hard to beat.
Value Bet
Race 9 #6 Vintage Star ($7.50) - For a horse that is 5/16 in his career, he is really rocks or diamonds. Ran fourth first-up at Murray Bridge, just grinding away to run a nice figure. His second-up profile isn’t too bad, and he has drawn the inside, which should give him the ideal map. I have the top five in the market separated by 1.5 lengths; his price is pretty good to take a stab at.
Too Short, Too Good - Horse That Should Win (Too Short in Market)
Race 2 #2 Arugamama ($1.55) - Coming into this race with her fifth start this preparation, following a solid run in the Benalla Cup, and narrowly missing last time out over the 2000m at Murray Bridge. She is now out to her pet distance in a winnable grade, with an ideal drawn and a claim to boot. Should be winning.
The Bubble Burster - Horse That Won’t Win (Favourite to Get Beat)
Race 7 #8 Flaming Navy ($3.30) - I have two lengths separating nine of these twelve runners, so I reckon this bloke is vulnerable, despite the 6.7 length win last start at Balaklava. It was a massive peak rating, and the chances of him repeating that rating going up in grade is slim. 1800m is a query also. Happy to risk.
Sink or Swim - Horse on Last Chance
Race 6 #2 The Mansman ($4.00) - Whether I back this bloke or not, he is surely on his last chance. After placing his last three races, which were all winnable, you would think he is under the pump to secure a win here. He has only won three from twenty-three, so something has to give at some point.
Border Bandits - Horses Traveling Interstate
Saturday:
Moonee Valley
R1: Red Hot Nicc - $13.00 (Phillip Stokes) - Great record at Moonee Valley, and his best is very competitive. Draw is good, especially with so much speed. Great each way hope.
R2: Snow Mercy - $5.50 (Phillip Stokes), Virtual Illusion - $10.00 (R&C Jolly) - Snow Mercy was fantastic in the Group 3 Scarborough Stakes, and now has to take on the boys. She maps beautifully to go back-to-back. Virtual Illusion gets the right jockey aboard and has a terrific turn of foot. Will likely give them a start, so I would rather watch him.
R3: Shocap - $18.00 (Phillip Stokes) - Won first-up over this track and trip in maiden grade. Big step up here, place chance at best.
R5: Sir Kingsford - $10.00 (G & N Searle & B Callanan) - Takes on some quality horses. Will make himself known, but I doubt he can match them.
R8: Klabel - $27.00 (R&C Jolly) - This looks too tough.
Sunday:
Sale Cup
R7: Cartoon Graveyard - $3.10 (Will Clarken) - Big winner in the Murray Bridge Gold Cup. A repeat performance will see him going very close here, in a race where it looks very tight between the top 6.
Bets:
Morphettville
R1: #1 Blandford Baron ($2.00) - BFSP (Win) - Reasoning above.
R3: #15 I Am Ole ($8.00) / #6 Light The Night ($8.00) / #13 Fear The Zou ($21.00) - BFSP (Win) for all - All three were blackbooked from the trials, so I am going to speck them all with a small stake as the favourite could sneak away with this. I Am Ole looks the talented one of the three, returning a gelding. Lovely draw should see him run well. Light The Night ran a quick time over 800m in the Morphettville trials. Holder/Gluyas combo is lethal, and they have drawn well. Fear The Zou didn’t have a quick time, but I didn’t mind the trial. Rochelle Milnes trialled her and sticks with heron race day, and like the other two, has drawn well.
R5: #1 Battle Of The Ice ($3.20) - Fixed (Win) - Got him marked much shorter. Debut run was fantastic. Replication or improvement from debut run, see’s him win with the inform Jason Holder aboard.
R7: #3 Party Crasher ($3.50) - BFSP (Win) - Needed the run first-up and still ran credibly. Fitter now, up to 1800m and a great draw.
R8: #4 Touchdown ($2.20) - Fixed (Win) - Reasoning above.
R9: #6 Vintage Star ($7.50) - BFSP (Win) - Reasoning above.
Moonee Valley
R2: #8 Snow Mercy ($5.50) - BFSP (Win) - Reasoning above.
Early Quaddie: 2 - 1, 6, 12, 13, 15 - 1, 2, 5, 6 - 1, 3 - 100% = $40
Quaddie: 2, 3, 4, 7, 11, 13 - 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 12 - 4 - 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 - 100% = $180
***Prices current as of 9pm 24/10/2025
